Alabama’s population has changed notably in the last 15 years, but its electorate is changing more slowly and in different ways. That’s the headline from an analysis by the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama. With the midterms approaching, PARCA’s executive director Ryan Hankins spoke with WBHM’s Andrew Gelderman about the findings.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
I'd like to start off by diving into the population. How have we been seeing that change? What are the major changes?
Well, the state did grow between 2010 and 2020, although that was questionable. Most of that growth came at the very end of that 10-year period, and we're now ranked 27th in the country for population. For the most part, that growth has been actually people moving into the state. About 50 of our counties are seeing more deaths than births. So our growth has really been about the ability to, one, attract people to move to the state, but more importantly, to keep them in the state.
That said, the population is aging. Our median age has gone up by two years in just a few short years. The share of our population over 65 is just about the same as our population under 18, which has some really interesting long-term implications for the economy, for education, for voting. And it's a diversifying population. So an increasing share of our population are Hispanic and Asian. In fact, the Hispanic population is growing eight times as fast as the state overall.
But that's not what we're seeing with the electorate over the years. What are we seeing?
So the population is aging and the electorate is aging faster. The population is moving to the suburbs and the electorate is moving to the suburb faster. And the population is diversifying, race and ethnicity, and the electorate is not. So the electorate is older than the population. The electorate is more suburban than the population and the electorate is more white than the population.
Do we have any idea why we're seeing that change or why we are seeing the diversity of our electorate change slower than our population?
Part of that is age. We know that for many years and across the country, older Alabamians, or Americans in general, are registered to vote and vote at higher rates than younger people. In Alabama right now, 77% of the population over 65 are registered to vote, compared to 53% of population 18 to 24, which is important for turnout. A large youth voter turnout is constrained by a relatively smaller share of the younger population voting.
So one of the factors is that younger adults tend to register at lower rates and vote at lower rates. Second, I think the big factor is the Hispanic population. So while the Hispanic population is growing, a very small share of the Hispanic population are registered to vote. Some are not eligible. But even amongst those who are, a small share are registered. The most interesting factor now and in the future around the demographics of the voter is the largest share of Hispanics not voting are school-aged population, under 18. So in the next 10 years, we'll see a relatively significant increase in the number of Hispanics eligible to vote.
Obviously we've got the midterms coming up November 3. How are we expecting these changes with the electorate and population to impact the election?
We know the electorate will be older. We know it will skew suburban. The growing counties are the suburban counties — Limestone, Shelby, Baldwin, Lee. We should expect to see a large turnout in those counties. We should see smaller vote counts coming from the Black Belt. Those counties continue to shrink.
We want to be very clear that demographics are not destiny. And you see that in the elections two years ago in Texas and Florida and other states where demographics did not predict voter choices. What it shows us is who is making those decisions and we should be mindful about that, what that means for the near term and for the future of Alabama.
After this midterm election, what are we expecting to change down the line?
So the state will continue to age. The last baby boomers will turn 65 in 2029. Ten years from tonight, we will have probably still an older population, but we will see a larger share of young adults. We should see a larger share of Black, Hispanic and Asian voters than we see right now. And we should see a larger of voters who were not born in Alabama.
