Much ink has been spilled this election cycle about the competitive races that could determine which party controls Congress.
But tossup districts represent only a fraction of congressional races. The vast majority — 80% — are rated solid Republican or solid Democrat. Candidates running against the political grain face an uphill battle, with campaigns marked by limited resources, dwindling donors, and scarce staff.
What's it like to run for Congress when political wisdom says you'll probably lose?
It's a question Lisa Kinney has heard again and again.
She's running as a Democrat for the lone House seat in Wyoming. Since the late 1970s, it has only sent Republicans to Congress.
"I don't think the people of Wyoming always hear both sides," Kinney says during a day of campaigning in Casper. "I'm glad to give another opinion. And I'm a Wyomingite, so I'm still moderate no matter what."
You wouldn't know it from an ad from her opponent that places her next to progressive figures Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Kinney says she finds it funny, albeit bemusing.
"What's he thinking — that we all get together and do socialist stuff?" she chuckles as she walks into Johnny J's to talk to early risers.
After perusing the pecan and cinnamon rolls, Kinney makes her way through the crowded diner. She's met with some hasty "nopes" from people who want to keep politics away from their pancakes — along with a gentleman who says he can't support a party that doesn't back Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a woman who doesn't like Democrats' stance on trans issues.
Then she meets Joe Beck, who doesn't identify with either party. He says he's fed up with the Trump administration, but is skeptical Kinney could make a difference.
"How are you going to turn things around?" he asks, eyebrows raised.
"You need a person in there — that's me — who's a moderate who can talk to Republicans, who can talk to Democrats," she says. "I swear to you we're going to make a difference."
They chat for 10 minutes. At the end, he says he's actually already voted for her — but he's not optimistic.
"You have an uphill battle. This is the reddest state in the nation," he warns. "I applaud you — but there's a tsunami coming at you on the first Tuesday in November."
Mounting a run with little party infrastructure means no campaign office for Kinney, a former state senator. It means just a handful of "helpers" across the state and countless hours on the road to spread her message of preserving public lands and lowering health care costs.
"It's really tiring — but we have to see as many people as we can," she says. "If they can meet me, they feel more comfortable voting for me."
Rodney Lang, Kinney's husband, says a win for them is more than just the election day results.
"If we lose, the good news is the party's stronger, and we think we've contributed to that," he says.
Kinney calls herself a realist and says she knows many in the state will vote for whoever has an "R" next to their name.
"But I always have it in my mind that I can win," she adds.
'You can't just give it the ole college try'
Two thousand miles away, George Austin, a home builder and former football coach, says he feels a sense of kinship with Kinney.
"I applaud, I admire, I empathize, I commiserate with anyone and everyone who is in the same boat," he says.
The pair are flip sides of the same coin; Kinney a speck of blue running in a red state, and Austin a Republican running in the Democratic stronghold of Connecticut.
They see up close a dynamic that has been brewing for some time — deep partisan entrenchment in states.
"In this Congress, there are 19 state delegations comprised of only representatives and senators from the same political party," said Eric Ostermeier, founder of the nonpartisan political news site Smart Politics. "That is a high watermark for nearly three quarters of a century — 1953 is the last time we saw numbers that high."
He says there's not just one reason for these "monolithic partisan tendencies."
Gerrymandering plays a role, diluting the voting strength of political minorities. But safe congressional seats are also produced without manipulation, with voters often sorting themselves geographically. Additionally, Ostermeier said it's difficult for state partisans to separate themselves from the national party identity.
"It's harder for a state office candidate to say, 'I'm a Wyoming Democrat, I'm not a Washington Democrat' — you get tainted by the national party," Ostermeier said.
Austin has experienced that himself, with some voters quickly disengaging when they discover he's a Republican or once President Trump comes up in conversation.
"They ask me if I voted for him. I say, 'of course I did.' And we never get to discuss why," he says, adding there are areas where he disagrees with the administration.
He tries to steer conversations towards issues where there tends to be more common ground, like lamenting congressional gridlock, pushing for term limits, or placing guardrails on AI.
Austin is running to represent Connecticut's second congressional district, where the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Joe Courtney, has easily won reelection for 20 years. Democrats in the state have won 45 straight U.S. House elections since 2008.
"We haven't had any variety, any diversity in representation," Austin says. "I want to try to restore some balance."
He points to the high number of uncontested races in the state as another motivator.
"I want to win, I'm competitive and I believe in the cause — but that's the superficial motivation," Austin explained. "The nuanced one is that I want to be a catalyst to show other working men and women, other regular Joes out there, that this is worthwhile."
Nationally, a significant share of state legislative seats are decided well ahead of Election Day because of the lack of competitive challengers. In Connecticut, 46 of the state legislature's 187 seats are uncontested.
Austin wears "many hats" in his campaign, including scheduler and volunteer coordinator. He also put a quarter of a million of his own money into the campaign, a sign of the financial toll these races can take.
"I'm successful, but I'm a far cry from wealthy — it's just what the people deserved, it's what the race deserved," he says.
He says it's important to run, even when the political odds are stacked against you.
"Word of caution — you really have to decide if you're in it for the right reasons because you're going to lose a whole bunch of sleep," he says. "It ain't for everyone, I'll tell you that right now. You can't just give it the ole college try – that's not what the race deserves, regardless of how outnumbered you are."
He acknowledges the path for a political minority like him — and Kinney — is challenging – but important.
"I definitely don't think that my race is a lost cause," he says. "But even if it was, you could argue that lost causes are the only ones worth fighting for."
Chris Polansky from Connecticut Public contributed reporting.
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